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The following is an excerpt from a 20-F SEC Filing, filed by ALLIED IRISH BANKS PLC on 6/17/2004.
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ALLIED IRISH BANKS PLC - 20-F - 20040617 - MARKET_RISK
Item 11. Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about risk

 

Risk management

 

Risk-taking is inherent in providing financial services and AIB assumes a variety of risks in its ordinary business activities. These include, credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk and operational risk. The role of Risk Management is to ensure that AIB continues to take risk in a controlled way in order to enhance shareholder value. AIB’s risk management policies are designed to identify and analyse these risks, to set appropriate risk limits and to monitor these risks and limits continually. AIB continually modifies and enhances its risk management practices to reflect changes in markets, products and evolving best practice.

 

Primary responsibility for risk management lies with line management. Within AIB, line management is supported by a risk management function that sets standards, policies, limits and measurement methods and provides independent oversight with a direct reporting line to the Group Chief Executive (“CEO”) and the Audit Committee of the Board. The Board of Directors formally approves the overall strategy and the direction of the business on an annual basis. It regularly monitors the Group’s financial performance, reviews risk management activities and controls and has responsibility for approving the Group’s risk appetite. The Group Executive Committee (“GEC”) , comprising the Group CEO, Group Director, Finance & Enterprise Technology, Group Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”), Group Director of HR and the four Divisional Managing Directors, manages the strategic business risks of the Group. It sets the business strategy within which the risk management function operates and oversees its activities.

 

The Group Risk Management Committee (“RMC”) is chaired by the Group CRO and has Governance responsibility for identifying, analysing and monitoring exposure, adopting best practice standards and directing risk management activities across the Group. It is supported by the Group Credit Committee (“GCC”), the Group Operational Risk Management Committee (“ORMCO”) and the Group Market Risk Committee (“MRC”). The Group Asset and Liability Management Committee (“Group ALCO”) is chaired by the Group Director, Finance & Enterprise Technology and has responsibility for the Group’s capital, funding and liquidity management activities.

 

The Group CRO heads AIB’s risk management function. This function is responsible for:

 

  Policies, instructions and guidelines

 

  Identification of risk

 

  Risk analysis

 

  Risk measurement

 

  Monitoring and control, and

 

  Reporting

 

Each of the four operating divisions have dedicated risk management functions, with Divisional CRO’s reporting directly to the Group CRO. In addition, the Group Chief Credit Officer (“CCO”) and the Group Head of Operational Risk Management have functional responsibility for these risks at the centre and these also report directly to the Group CRO. Each Division has dedicated credit risk management and operational risk management functions. The Divisional CCO chairs the credit committee in each Division. Each Division has an ORMCO that reports into the Group ORMCO. The CRO for Capital Markets Division has functional responsibility for market risk for the Group.

 

Two other functions play very important roles in overseeing the risk control environment. These are Group Internal Audit and Regulatory Compliance & Business Ethics.

 

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Group Internal Audit provides independent assurance to the Board Audit Committee in the form of a written opinion on the adequacy, effectiveness and sustainability of the governance, risk management and control framework in operation throughout the Group. The risk management processes for credit risk, market risk and operational risk are assessed and tested. In addition to audit reports, internal audit provides information on the overall control environment to the management of the individual divisions. A secondary objective of internal audit is to influence proactively executive management to strengthen the governance, risk management and control framework through the sharing of best practices.

 

In undertaking its responsibilities, internal audit adopts a risk-based approach, which underpins the risk management processes in place across the Group. Businesses undertake self-assessments of operational risk and the effectiveness of their controls in managing these risks. The information contained in these self-assessments is subject to review by internal audit. There is a programme of ongoing review of risk identification standards and risk measurement methodologies at business unit level, which includes testing of the risk mitigators adopted by management.

 

Regulatory Compliance & Business Ethics (“RC & BE”) has responsibility for co-ordinating the compliance functions across all Divisions and for the development of Group policy on ethical matters. Divisional compliance departments together with management, develop policies and procedures to ensure compliance with applicable law, regulation and codes of practice with respect to the conduct of business.

 

RC & BE reports independently to the Audit Committee on the compliance framework in operation across the Group and on management attention to compliance matters.

 

Credit risk

 

Credit risk is the risk that a customer or counterparty will be unwilling or unable to meet a commitment that it has entered into and that the pledged collateral does not cover AIB’s claims. The credit risks in AIB arise primarily from lending activities but also from guarantees, derivatives and securities. Furthermore, credit risk includes country risk and settlement risk.

 

The credit risk in derivatives contracts is the risk that AIB’s counterparty in the contract defaults prior to maturity at a time when AIB has a claim on the counterparty under the contract. AIB would then have to replace the contract at the current market rate, which may result in a loss.

 

Country risk is the risk that circumstances can arise in which customers and other counterparties within a given country may be unable, unwilling or precluded from fulfilling their obligations to AIB due to deterioration in economic or political circumstances.

 

Settlement risk is the risk of loss arising in situations where AIB has given irrevocable instructions for a transfer of a principal amount or security in exchange for receiving a payment or security from a counterparty, which defaults before the transaction is completed.

 

Credit management and control

 

Credit risk is managed and controlled throughout AIB on the basis of established credit processes and within a framework of credit policy and delegated authorities based on skill and experience. Credit grading and monitoring systems accommodate the early identification and management of deterioration in loan quality. In addition, the credit management process is underpinned by an independent system of credit review.

 

The Board determines the credit authority for the GCC and approves the Group’s key credit policies. It also approves divisional credit authorities and reviews credit performance on a regular basis. The GCC considers and approves, within the parameters of the Group Large Exposure Policy, credit exposures which are in excess of divisional credit authorities and has responsibility for netting and approval of loan provisioning. It comprises senior divisional and Group-based management. This committee reviews and recommends key credit policies to the Board and reviews trends in credit quality and determines overall provision adequacy.

 

The Group CCO sets Groupwide standards for best practice including credit grading and scoring methodologies and exposure measurement and chairs the GCC. Divisional management approve divisional credit policy/best practice with the involvement of the risk management function.

 

Customer and facility grading is a core component of the credit risk management process as it captures a variety of quantitative and qualitative factors indicating a customer’s capability to meet its obligations to AIB. Divisional authority and large exposure policy limits are tiered by reference to customer and facility grade.

 

Credit risk on derivatives

 

Derivatives are used by AIB to meet customer needs as well as for proprietary trading purposes and to reduce interest rate and currency risk in regular banking activities. Derivatives affect both credit and market risk exposures. The credit exposure is treated in the same way as other types of credit exposure and is included in customer limits.

 

The total credit exposure consists partly of current exposure and partly of potential future exposure. The potential future exposure is an estimation, which reflects possible changes in market values during the remaining lifetime of the individual contract. AIB uses a simulation tool to estimate possible changes in future market values and computes the credit exposure to a high level of statistical significance.

 

Country risk

 

Country risk is managed by setting appropriate maximum risk limits to reflect each country’s overall credit worthiness. Independent credit information from international sources, supported by visits to relevant countries is used to determine the appropriate risk limits. Risks and limits are monitored on an ongoing basis.

 

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Settlement risk

 

The settlement risk on individual counterparties is measured as the full value of the transactions on the day of settlement. It is controlled through settlement risk limits. Each counterparty is assessed in the credit process and clearing agents, correspondent banks and custodians are selected with a view to minimising settlement risk.

 

Measurement methods

 

In recent years, AIB has taken significant steps to improve its framework for quantifying credit risk. Driven initially by the introduction of Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (“RAROC”) as a tool to improve credit decision-making and performance management, work is continuing to refine measurement methods to enhance shareholder value and meet the standards of the New Basel Accord (“Basel II”).

 

Rating and scoring

 

Internal rating and credit scoring models lie at the heart of credit management in AIB. They are used to differentiate between credits on the basis of the likelihood of default. AIB’s core grading system combines an evaluation and measurement of the business and financial risk factors affecting a borrower with a method for capturing the risk characteristics of different types of credit facilities.

 

Quantifying credit risk

 

AIB’s RAROC framework centres around the quantification of economic capital, i.e. AIB’s estimate of the amount of capital required to protect against the risks inherent in the business. The most important inputs when quantifying credit risk are the probability of default (“PD”), the loss given default (“LGD”) and the exposure at default (“EAD”). The rating grades produced by the rating models are translated into a PD, which is a key parameter when measuring risk. LGD is measured taking into account the security held by AIB. EAD for many products is equal to the outstanding exposure, but for some products, such as credit lines and derivative contracts, the EAD may be higher than the outstanding exposure.

 

AIB uses RAROC to ensure that investment and lending activities earn an adequate return for the risk taken. The methods used to estimate economic capital and allocate it to the business continue to be upgraded in line with emerging best practice.

 

Market risk

 

Market risk is the exposure to loss arising from adverse movements in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and equity prices. It arises in trading activities as well as in the natural course of transacting business, for example in the provision of fixed rate loans or equity linked tracker bonds to customers.

 

Risk management and control

 

The principal aims of AIB’s market risk management activities are to limit the adverse impact of interest rate, exchange rate and equity price movements on profitability and shareholder value and to enhance earnings within defined limits. Market risk management for AIB is centralized in Capital Markets Division. Interest rate, foreign exchange rate and equity risks incurred in retail and corporate banking activities are transferred into Global Treasury where they are managed. The basic principle is that these risks are eliminated by matching the market risk characteristics of assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items. Global Treasury has the discretion to run a small mismatch, subject to strict limits and is also responsible for AIB’s investment and liquidity management activities.

 

Market risks are managed by setting limits on the amount of the Group’s capital that can be put at risk. These limits are based on risk measurement methodologies described below. The Board delegates authority to the Group CRO to allocate these limits on its behalf. The limits for Global Treasury are set in accordance with its business strategy and are reviewed frequently. The Managing Director of Global Treasury allocates these limits to the various dealing desks who supplement these with more detailed limits and other risk reducing features such as stop-loss rules. Within Global Treasury, there is a dedicated risk management team charged with the responsibility to ensure that the risk measurement methodologies used are appropriate for the risks being taken and that appropriate monitoring and control procedures are in place. The Market Risk Committee (“MRC”) reviews market risk strategy. It approves policies and promotes best practice for measurement, monitoring and control.

 

Liquidity risk

 

The objective of liquidity management is to ensure that, at all times, the Group holds sufficient funds to meet its contracted and contingent commitments to customers and counterparties, at an economic price. The Group achieves this through the maintenance of a stock of high quality liquid assets and active involvement in the interbank market, supplemented by a euro medium-term note program. The Group’s stock of liquid assets is maintained at a level considered sufficient to meet the withdrawal of deposits or calls on commitments in both normal and abnormal trading conditions. In all cases, net outflows are monitored on a daily basis and the required minimum stock of liquid assets can be increased if these outflows exceed predetermined target levels. Global Treasury, through its wholesale treasury operations manages, on a global basis, the liquidity and funding requirements of the Group. Item 11 outlines the committee oversight responsibility with respect to liquidity management.

 

Euro, Sterling and the Polish zloty represent the most important currencies to AIB Group from a liquidity perspective. The Group has an establised retail deposit base in Ireland, Britain and Poland which funds asset growth. Although a significant element of these deposits are contractually repayable on demand or at short notice, the Group’s substantial customer base and geographic spread generally ensures that these current and deposit accounts represent a stable and predictable source of funds. The retail deposit base in Ireland and the U.K has continued to grow in recent years, despite the general reduction in interest rates. In Poland, there has been a small reduction in deposit levels due to the falling interest rate environment. An additional contribution

 

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to this reduction has been the introduction of deposit interest retention tax resulting in a move to mutual type funds. Poland’s fund management subsidiary has proactively responded to this market change and succeeded in increasing its share of the overall Polish savings and investment market. Notwithstanding this trend, deposits in Poland continue to significantly exceed loan assets.

 

The Group has sufficient liquidity to meet its current funding requirements and has a funding strategy in place to meet its future funding needs.

 

For information on the level of borrowing at the end of the period and its maturity and interest profile see “Analysis of loans to customers by maturity and interest rate sensitivity” on page 166.

 

The Group also operates a liquidity contingency plan for critical situations. This was last instigated in February 2002 following the fraudulent foreign exchange trading activities in Allfirst Bank. Counterparty ratings of AIB are as follows: Moody’s long-term “Aa3” and short-term “P-1”; Fitch long-term “AA” minus and “F+1”; Standard and Poors long-term single “A”.

 

Measurement methods

 

There is no single risk measure that captures all aspects of market risk. AIB uses several risk measures including Value at Risk (“VaR”) models, sensitivity measures and stress testing.

 

VaR

 

The aim of VaR is to estimate the probable maximum loss in fair value that could arise in one month from a “worst case” movement in market rates. This is computed using statistical analysis of market rate movements setting a confidence level at 99%. This means that there is a one in one hundred chance that the potential loss could be greater than that estimated from the data used. VaR figures are quoted using one-day and one-month holding periods.

 

AIB’s market risk exposure is spread across a range of instruments, currencies and maturities. The VaR for a portfolio of market risk positions will not be the sum of the VaRs for each financial instrument included in the portfolio. The VaR for a portfolio is lower because it is unlikely that the “worst case” scenario occurs in all instruments, currencies and maturities simultaneously.

 

Sensitivity measures

 

The limitations of VaR techniques are well known to banks. They stem from the need to make assumptions about the spread of likely future price and rate movements. AIB supplements its VaR methodology with sensitivity measures. Dealers in Global Treasury know how much the value of their positions could change for a given change in rates and/or prices. This sensitivity is monitored at desk and management level and reported on by the Global Treasury risk management unit. These measures can also be used to decide on hedging activities. Decisions can be taken to close out positions when the level of sensitivity combined with the likelihood of a rate or price change exposes AIB to too high a loss in value.

 

Stress testing

 

AIB’s VaR and sensitivity measures provide estimates of probable maximum loss in normal market conditions. Stress tests are used to supplement these measures by estimating possible losses that may occur under extreme market conditions. These measures feed into the estimate of economic capital for market risk.

 

The following table illustrates the VAR figures for interest rate risk for the years ended December 31, 2003 and 2002.

 

     2003

   2002

     Trading

   Non-Trading

   Trading

   Non-Trading

     (Euro in millions)    (Euro in millions)

Interest rate risk

                   

1 month holding period:

                   

Average

   9.3    25.9    6.8    48.7

High

   11.6    49.6    9.3    87.4

Low

   6.4    12.8    4.7    23.0

December 31

   8.1    18.9    6.4    48.5

1 day holding period:

                   

Average

   2.1    5.8    1.5    10.9

High

   2.6    11.1    2.1    19.5

Low

   1.4    2.9    1.0    5.1

December 31

   1.8    4.2    1.4    10.8

 

Interest rate risk

 

Global Treasury manages the Group’s exposure to interest rate risk. The risk is that changes in interest rates will have adverse effects on earnings and on the value of AIB’s assets and liabilities. This risk is managed by setting limits on the earnings at risk and the value at risk (VaR) from the open interest rate risk positions of the Group. Stop loss limits are also used to close out loss making positions.

 

In managing interest rate risk, a distinction is made between trading and non-trading activities. Trading activities are recorded in the trading book. Interest rate risk associated with AIB’s retail, corporate and commercial activities is managed through the non-trading book. The reported interest rate VaR figures above represent the average, high, low and year end probable maximum loss in respect of both trading and non-trading book positions held in Global Treasury.

 

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Trading book

 

The interest rate trading book includes all securities and interest rate derivatives that are held for trading purposes in Global Treasury. These are revalued daily at market prices (marked to market) and any changes in value are immediately recognized in income. During 2003, trading book interest rate risk was predominantly concentrated in the euro, sterling and the US dollar.

 

Non-trading book

 

AIB’s non-trading book consists of its retail and corporate deposit books, Global Treasury’s cash books and the Group’s investment portfolios. AIB’s retail businesses have a substantial level of free current accounts, equity and other interest-free or fixed rate liabilities and assets. Unless carefully managed, the net income from these funds will fluctuate directly with short-term interest rates. AIB manages this volatility by maintaining a portfolio of assets with interest rates fixed for several years. In designing this strategy, care is taken to ensure that the management of the portfolio is not inflexible as market conditions and customer requirements can bring about a need to alter the portfolio. Group ALCO sets the framework and reviews the management of these activities.

 

AIB’s net interest rate sensitivity as at December 31, 2003 is illustrated in note 52.

 

Foreign exchange rate risk

 

AIB is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk through its international operations and through Global Treasury activities in foreign currencies.

 

Foreign exchange rate risk - structural

 

Structural foreign exchange rate risk arises from the Group’s non-trading net asset position in foreign currencies. Structural risk exposure arises almost entirely from the Group’s net investments in its sterling, US dollar and Polish zloty-based subsidiaries. The Group prepares its consolidated financial statements in euro. Accordingly, the consolidated balance sheet is affected by movements in the exchange rates between these currencies and the euro.

 

It is normal Group practice to match material individual foreign currency investments in overseas subsidiaries, associated undertakings and branches, with liabilities in the same currency. However, Polish investments are recorded in euro. Because of the Group’s diversified international operations, the currency profile of its capital may not necessarily match that of its assets and risk weighted assets. Under Board-approved policy, a sub-committee of Group ALCO has delegated responsibility for hedging this structural mismatch against adverse exchange rate movements.

 

The Group does not maintain material non-trading open currency positions other than the structural risk exposure discussed above.

 

At December 31, 2003 and 2002, the Group’s structural foreign exchange position was as follows:

 

     December 31,
2003


   December 31,
2002


     (Euro in millions)

US dollar

   1,499    902

Sterling

   1,008    1,206

Polish zloty

   129    187
    
  
     2,636    2,295
    
  

 

This position indicates that a 10% movement in the value of the euro against these currencies at December 31, 2003 would result in an amount to be taken to reserves of €264 million.

 

Under the existing accounting policy, the Group may choose to hedge all or part of its projected future foreign currency earnings, thereby fixing a translation rate for the amount hedged. The purpose of these hedges is to minimise the risk of significant fluctuations in the reported euro values of the Group’s separate US dollar, sterling and Polish zloty earnings. A discussion on the impact of hedging profits is included in “translation of foreign locations” income on page 20 of this report. The ability to hedge translation risk arising from fluctuations in the reported euro value of foreign currency earnings will be severely restricted under IAS 39.

 

Foreign exchange rate risk - trading

 

Global Treasury manages AIB’s exposure to foreign exchange rate risk arising from unhedged customer transactions and discretionary trading. The risk is that adverse movements in foreign exchange rates will result in losses. This risk is managed by setting limits on the earnings at risk and the value at risk (“VaR”) from the open foreign exchange rate positions of the Group. Stop loss limits are also used to close out loss making positions.

 

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The following table sets out the VaR figures for trading foreign exchange rate risk for the years ended December 31, 2003 and 2002.

 

     2003

   2002

     (Euro in millions)

Foreign exchange rate risk-trading

         

1 month holding period:

         

Average

   0.6    0.9

High

   0.9    1.9

Low

   0.3    0.3

December 31

   0.5    0.8

1 day holding period:

         

Average

   0.1    0.2

High

   0.2    0.4

Low

   0.1    0.1

December 31

   0.1    0.2

 

Equity risk

 

Global Treasury manages the equity risk arising on its convertible bond portfolio and from stock market linked investment products (tracker bonds) sold to customers. Goodbody stockbrokers manage the equity risk in its Principal Trading Account. The risk is that adverse movements in share, share index or equity option prices will result in losses for the Group. This risk is managed by setting limits on the earnings at risk and the value at risk (“VaR”) from the open equity positions of the Group. Stop loss limits are also used to close out loss making positions. The table below sets out the VaR figures for equity risk for the years ended December 31, 2003 and 2002.

 

     Trading

   Non-Trading

     2003

   2002

   2003

   2002

     (Euro in millions)

Equity risk

                   

1 month holding period:

                   

Average

   14.5    10.2    —      0.3

High

   19.3    16.5    —      0.7

Low

   11.6    6.2    —      0.1

31 December

   18.1    9.9    —      —  

1 day holding period:

                   

Average

   3.2    2.3    —      0.1

High

   4.3    3.7    —      0.2

Low

   2.6    1.4    —      —  

31 December

   4.1    2.2    —      —  

 

Off-balance sheet financial instruments

 

AIB uses off-balance sheet financial instruments, including derivatives, to service customer requirements, to manage the Group’s market risk exposures and for trading purposes.

 

Credit commitments

 

Contingent liabilities and commitments to extend credit are outlined in note 43. The Group’s maximum exposure to credit loss in the event of non-performance by the other party, where all counterclaims, collateral or security prove valueless, is represented by the contractual amounts of these contracts.

 

The following table shows the nominal or contract amounts and the risk weighted credit equivalent of contingent liabilities and commitments at December 31, 2003 and 2002.

 

     December 31, 2003

   December 31, 2002

     Contract
amount


   Risk
weighted
amount


   Contract
amount


   Risk
weighted
amount


          (Euro in millions)     

Contingent liabilities

                   

Acceptances and endorsements

   12    12    72    61

Guarantees and assets pledged as collateral security

   4,157    4,053    5,292    4,958

Other contingent liabilities

   722    368    1,027    520
    
  
  
  
     4,891    4,433    6,391    5,539
    
  
  
  

Commitments

                   

Sale and option to resell transactions

   —      —      2,062    1,230

Other commitments

   13,932    4,027    17,890    4,499
    
  
  
  
     13,932    4,027    19,952    5,729
    
  
  
  

 

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The Group uses the same credit control and risk management policies in undertaking all off-balance sheet commitments as it does for on balance sheet lending including counterparty credit approval, limit setting and monitoring procedures. In addition, in relation to derivative instruments, the Group’s exposure to market risk is controlled within the risk limits in the Group’s Interest Rate Risk and Foreign Exchange Risk Policies and is further constrained by the risk parameters incorporated in the Group’s Derivatives Policy as approved by the Board.

 

The table below shows the notional amount and gross replacement cost for trading and non-trading interest rate, exchange rate and equity contracts at December 31, 2003 and 2002. Further detailed information on derivatives is provided in Note 44 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

 

     December 31, 2003

   December 31, 2002

     Notional
amount


   Gross
replacement
cost


   Notional
amount


   Gross
replacement
cost


     (Euro in millions)

Interest rate contracts

                   

Trading

   72,736    736    75,558    1,223

Non-trading

   27,045    294    34,971    690
    
  
  
  
     99,781    1,030    110,529    1,913
    
  
  
  

Exchange rate contracts

                   

Trading

   14,753    464    18,468    457

Non-trading

   812    37    2,578    89
    
  
  
  
     15,565    501    21,046    546
    
  
  
  

Equity contracts

                   

Trading

   2,445    73    2,037    27

Non-trading

   —      —      —      —  
    
  
  
  
     2,445    73    2,037    27
    
  
  
  

 

Derivative instruments are contractual agreements between parties whose value reflects movements in an underlying interest rate, foreign exchange rate, equity price or index. While notional principal amounts are used to express the volume of these transactions, the amounts subject to credit risk are much lower. This is because most derivatives involve payments based on the net differences between the rates expressed in the contracts and other market rates.

 

The Group is exposed to interest rate risk when assets and liabilities mature or reprice at different times or in differing amounts. Interest rate derivatives are used to manage interest rate risk in a cost-efficient manner. Similarly, foreign exchange and equity derivatives are used to manage the Group’s exposure to foreign exchange and equity risk, as required.

 

The values of derivative instruments can rise and fall as market rates change. Where they are used to hedge on-balance sheet assets or liabilities, the changes in value are generally offset by the value changes in the hedged items.

 

Derivative transactions entered into for hedging purposes are accounted for in accordance with the accounting treatment for the item or items being hedged. Futures contracts are designated as hedges when they reduce risk and there is a high correlation between the futures contract and the item being hedged, both at inception and throughout the hedge period. Swaps, forward rate agreements and option contracts are generally used to manage the interest rate risk of balance sheet items and are linked to specific assets or groups of similar assets or specific liabilities or groups of similar liabilities. Where a transaction originally entered into for hedging purposes no longer represents a hedge, its value is restated at fair value and any subsequent change in value is taken to the statement of income immediately.

 

The following is a brief description of the derivative instruments that account for the major part of the Group’s derivative activities:

 

Interest rate swaps are agreements between two parties to exchange fixed and floating rate interest by means of periodic payments based upon notional principal amounts and interest rates defined in the contract.

 

The Group uses interest rate swaps to manage the impact on income and stockholder’s value of interest rate changes on variable and fixed rate assets. In addition, swaps are used to hedge the Group’s funding costs.

 

Currency swaps are interest rate swaps where one or both of the legs of the swap is payable in a different currency. They are used by both customers and Global Treasury to convert fixed rate assets or liabilities to floating rate or vice versa, or to change the maturity or currency profile of underlying assets and liabilities, as required.

 

Forward rate agreements are individually negotiated contracts under which an interest rate is agreed for a notional principal amount covering a specified period in the future. At the settlement date, if interest rates for the future period are higher than the agreed rate, the seller pays the buyer the difference between the contract rate and the rate prevailing. If interest rates are lower, the buyer pays the seller. These contracts are used by customers to fix the rates for future short-term borrowing or deposits.

 

Financial futures are exchange traded contracts to buy or sell a standardised amount of the underlying item at an agreed price on a set date. Interest rate futures contracts are available in all of the major currencies. Foreign currency and equity index futures are also available. Financial futures are used to hedge the Group’s exposures arising from the sale of forward rate agreements or guaranteed equity products. They are also used to manage the interest rate risks arising in the Group’s debt securities portfolio.

 

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Options are contracts that give the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset e.g. bond, foreign currency, or equity index, at a certain price on or before an agreed date. These provide more flexible means of managing exposure to changes in interest rates, exchange rates and equity index levels. Foreign exchange rate options are used to hedge income and expenses arising from non-euro denominated assets and liabilities and to manage the impact of exchange rates on the reported euro value of non-euro earnings. Foreign exchange rate options are also used to hedge exposures arising from customer transactions.

 

Interest rate caps/floors are series of options that give the buyer the ability to fix the maximum or minimum rate of interest. A combination of an interest rate cap and floor is known as an interest rate collar.

 

Forward foreign exchange contracts are agreements to buy or sell a specified quantity of foreign currency, usually on a specified date, at an agreed exchange rate. These contracts are used by customers to fix the exchange rates for future foreign exchange transactions. They are also used by the Group to hedge non-euro income and expenses and to manage the impact of exchange rates on the reported euro value of non-euro earnings.

 

Credit derivatives are contracts, the value of which are determined by the credit worthiness of some underlying borrower or borrowers. They are used in the industry to increase (take a position in) or decrease (hedge) an exposure to credit risk. AIB currently makes little use of credit derivatives.

 

Operational risk

 

Within AIB, operational risk is defined as the exposure to loss from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. It is the risk of direct or indirect loss, or damaged reputation, due to deficiencies or errors in the Group’s internal operations which may be attributable to employees, the organisation, control routines, processes or technology, or due to external events and relations. Operational risks are inherent in all activities within the organization, in outsourced activities and in all interaction with external parties.

 

Solid internal control and quality management, consisting of a risk management framework, leadership and skilled personnel, is the key to successful operational risk management. Each business area is primarily responsible for managing its own operational risks. Risk management develops and maintains the framework for identifying, monitoring and controlling operational risks and supports the business in implementing the framework and raising awareness of operational risks.

 

An element of AIB’s operational risk management framework is ongoing monitoring through self-assessment of control deficiencies and weaknesses, the tracking of incidents and loss events and the use of a structured lessons learned process to ensure that, once identified, control deficiencies are communicated and remedied across the Group.

 

The role of Group ORMCO is to co-ordinate operational risk management activities across the Group through setting policy, monitoring compliance and promoting best practice disciplines.

 

Loan portfolio

 

AIB Group’s loan portfolio comprises loans (including overdrafts) and installment credit and finance lease receivables.

 

The overdraft provides a demand credit facility combined with a checking account. Borrowings occur when the customer’s drawings take the checking account into debit. The balance may therefore fluctuate with the requirements of the customer. Although overdrafts are contractually repayable on demand (unless a fixed term has been agreed), provided the account is deemed to be satisfactory, full repayment is not generally demanded without notice.

 

An important factor influencing the quality of AIB Group’s earnings is the diversification of its credit portfolio within each of its geographic markets (Ireland, United Kingdom, United States of America and Poland) by spread of locations, industry classification and individual customer.

 

Apart from the Construction and Property sector in the Republic of Ireland, no one industry in any geographic market accounts for more than 10% of AIB Group’s total loan portfolio.

 

Loans to the Construction and Property sector in the Republic of Ireland accounted for 13.1% of group advances as at December 31, 2003. These loans are well diversified by sub-sector, loan type, location and borrower. This portfolio includes loans for Property investment which is comprised of loans for investment in Commercial, Retail, Office and Residential Property (the majority of these loans are underpinned by lessee cashflow as well as collateral of the investment property), Property Development which is comprised of Residential Development and Commercial Development. A small percentage comprises loans to the Contracting sub-sector.

 

66


The following table shows AIB Group’s total loan portfolio by categories of loans at December 31, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 and 1999.

 

     December 31,

 
     2003

    2002

    2001

    2000

    1999

 
     (Euro in millions)  

IRELAND

                              

Agriculture

   1,372     1,393     1,344     1,233     1,261  

Energy

   336     539     386     385     234  

Manufacturing

   1,941     2,171     2,452     2,485     1,729  

Construction and property

   6,716     4,796     4,062     3,455     2,665  

Distribution

   4,039     3,741     3,351     2,960     2,412  

Transport

   490     505     544     404     505  

Financial

   380     461     556     392     804  

Services

   2,443     1,980     1,600     1,300     978  

Personal - Residential mortgages

   10,271     7,725     5,930     4,922     3,915  

               - Overdraft/installment

   3,412     3,024     2,716     2,531     2,274  

Lease financing

   1,375     1,406     1,364     1,336     1,202  

Guaranteed by Irish Government

   1     11     —       51     7  
    

 

 

 

 

     32,776     27,752     24,305     21,454     17,986  
    

 

 

 

 

UNITED KINGDOM

                              

Agriculture

   143     162     134     136     120  

Energy

   157     73     20     87     25  

Manufacturing

   1,166     989     1,190     780     659  

Construction and property

   4,008     2,860     2,156     1,850     1,473  

Distribution

   1,850     1,588     1,423     1,319     1,307  

Transport

   268     264     308     149     60  

Financial

   856     781     745     521     268  

Services

   2,223     2,261     1,805     1,522     1,440  

Personal - Residential mortgages

   2,499     2,151     1,965     1,775     1,523  

               - Overdraft/installment

   1,030     1,007     922     872     742  

Lease financing

   22     —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     14,222     12,136     10,668     9,011     7,617  
    

 

 

 

 

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (1)

                              

Agriculture

   —       —       —       —       —    

Energy

   79     —       —       —       —    

Manufacturing

   76     —       —       —       —    

Construction and property

   94     —       —       —       —    

Distribution

   58     —       —       —       —    

Transport

   5     —       —       —       —    

Financial

   51     —       —       —       —    

Services

   692     —       —       —       —    

Personal - Residential mortgages

   —       —       —       —       —    

               - Overdraft/installment

   2     —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     1,057     10,916     13,602     13,060     11,637  
    

 

 

 

 

POLAND (2)

                              

Agriculture

   135     154     169     133     —    

Energy

   200     219     263     207     —    

Manufacturing

   720     871     1,018     886     —    

Construction and Property

   270     221     230     187     —    

Distribution

   439     600     730     607     —    

Transport

   85     113     102     57     —    

Financial

   86     238     196     228     —    

Services

   287     318     275     181     —    
    

 

 

 

 

Total Commercial

   2,222     2,734     2,983     2,486     2,184  
    

 

 

 

 

Personal - Residential mortgages

   388     319     181     78     —    

               - Overdraft/installment

   186     239     333     340     —    
    

 

 

 

 

Total Personal

   574     558     514     418     294  
    

 

 

 

 

Lease financing

   248     —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     3,044     3,292     3,497     2,904     2,478  
    

 

 

 

 

REST OF THE WORLD

   15     227     230     220     301  
    

 

 

 

 

Total Loans to customers

   51,114     54,323     52,302     46,649     40,019  

Unearned income

   (115 )   (242 )   (311 )   (329 )   (293 )

Allowance for loan losses

   (662 )   (860 )   (1,007 )   (869 )   (768 )
    

 

 

 

 

     50,337     53,221     50,984     45,451     38,958  
    

 

 

 

 

 

67


(1) Following the divesting of Allfirst in Quarter 1 2003 AIB Group’s remaining USA advances are categorized sectorally on a basis consistent with the rest of the Group. For reference, details of the Group’s USA advances, as previously reported are included below.

 

     December 31,

     2002

   2001

   2000

   1999

   1998

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

                        

Commercial

   4,416    5,606    5,107    4,262    3,446

Real estate

   2,582    2,988    2,862    2,556    2,209

Residential mortgages

   374    550    705    691    717

Retail

   2,693    3,206    3,049    2,911    2,346

Bankcard

   12    17    16    15    13

Leases receivable

   839    1,235    1,321    1,202    891
    
  
  
  
  
     10,916    13,602    13,060    11,637    9,622
    
  
  
  
  

 

(2) A common standard for sectoral reporting of Poland advances was not available in 1999.

 

The following table shows the percentages of total loans by each category of loan at December 31, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 and 1999.

 

     December 31,

 
     2003

    2002

    2001

    2000

    1999

 

IRELAND

                              

Agriculture

   2.7 %   2.6 %   2.6 %   2.6 %   3.1 %

Energy

   0.7     1.0     0.7     0.8     0.6  

Manufacturing

   3.8     4.1     4.7     5.3     4.3  

Construction and property

   13.1     8.8     7.8     7.4     6.7  

Distribution

   7.9     6.9     6.4     6.4     6.0  

Transport

   1.0     0.9     1.0     0.9     1.3  

Financial

   0.7     0.8     1.1     0.8     2.0  

Services

   4.8     3.6     3.1     2.8     2.4  

Personal - Residential mortgages

   20.1     14.2     11.3     10.6     9.8  

               - Overdraft/installment

   6.6     5.6     5.2     5.4     5.7  

Lease financing

   2.7     2.6     2.6     2.9     3.0  

Guaranteed by Irish Government

   —       —       —       0.1     —    
    

 

 

 

 

     64.1 %   51.1 %   46.5 %   46.0 %   44.9 %
    

 

 

 

 

UNITED KINGDOM

                              

Agriculture

   0.3 %   0.3 %   0.3 %   0.3 %   0.3 %

Energy

   0.3     0.1     —       0.2     0.1  

Manufacturing

   2.3     1.8     2.3     1.7     1.6  

Construction and property

   7.8     5.3     4.1     4.0     3.7  

Distribution

   3.7     2.9     2.7     2.8     3.3  

Transport

   0.5     0.5     0.6     0.3     0.1  

Financial

   1.7     1.4     1.4     1.1     0.7  

Services

   4.3     4.2     3.4     3.2     3.6  

Personal - Residential mortgages

   4.9     4.0     3.8     3.8     3.8  

               - Overdraft/installment

   2.0     1.9     1.8     1.9     1.8  

Lease Financing

   —       —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     27.8 %   22.4 %   20.4 %   19.3 %   19.0 %
    

 

 

 

 

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

                              

Agriculture

   0.0 %   —       —       —       —    

Energy

   0.2     —       —       —       —    

Manufacturing

   0.1     —       —       —       —    

Construction and property

   0.2     —       —       —       —    

Distribution

   0.1     —       —       —       —    

Transport

   —       —       —       —       —    

Financial

   0.1     —       —       —       —    

Services

   1.4     —       —       —       —    

Personal - Residential mortgages

   —       —       —       —       —    

               - Overdraft/installment

   —       —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     2.1 %   20.1 %   26.0 %   28.0 %   29.1 %
    

 

 

 

 

 

68


     December 31,

 
     2003

    2002

    2001

    2000

    1999

 

POLAND (1)

                              

Agriculture

   0.3 %   0.3 %   0.3 %   0.3 %   —    

Energy

   0.4     0.4     0.5     0.4     —    

Manufacturing

   1.4     1.6     2.0     1.9     —    

Construction and Property

   0.5     0.4     0.4     0.4     —    

Distribution

   0.8     1.1     1.4     1.3     —    

Transport

   0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     —    

Financial

   0.2     0.4     0.4     0.5     —    

Services

   0.5     0.6     0.5     0.4     —    
    

 

 

 

 

Total Commercial

   4.3     5.0     5.7     5.3     5.5  
    

 

 

 

 

Personal - Residential mortgages

   0.8     0.6     0.4     0.2     —    

               - Overdraft/installment

   0.4     0.4     0.6     0.7     —    
    

 

 

 

 

Total Personal

   1.2     1.0     1.0     0.9     0.7  
    

 

 

 

 

Lease financing

   0.5     —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     6.0 %   6.0 %   6.7 %   6.2 %   6.2 %
    

 

 

 

 

REST OF THE WORLD

   0.0 %   0.4 %   0.4 %   0.5 %   0.8 %
    

 

 

 

 

Total loans to customers

   100 %   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %
    

 

 

 

 

 

(1) A common standard for sectoral reporting of Poland advances was not available in 1999.

 

Analysis of loans to customers by maturity and interest rate sensitivity

 

The following table analyzes loans to customers by maturity and interest rate sensitivity. Overdrafts, which in the aggregate represent approximately 7% of the portfolio, are classified as repayable within one year. Over 14% of AIB Group’s loan portfolio is provided on a fixed rate basis. Fixed rate loans are defined as those loans for which the interest rate is fixed for the full term of the loan. The interest rate risk exposure is managed by Global Treasury within agreed policy parameters.

 

     December 31, 2003

     Within 1
year


   After 1 year
but within 5
years


   After 5
years


   Total

     (Euro in millions)

Ireland

   11,296    8,264    13,216    32,776

United Kingdom

   4,675    3,033    6,514    14,222

United States of America

   173    438    446    1,057

Poland

   1,358    1,173    513    3,044

Rest of the World

   —      —      15    15
    
  
  
  

Total loans by maturity

   17,502    12,908    20,704    51,114
    
  
  
  
          Fixed rate

   Variable
rate


   Total

          (Euro in millions)

Ireland

        3,514    29,262    32,776

United Kingdom

        1,629    12,593    14,222

United States of America

        545    512    1,057

Poland

        1,555    1,489    3,044

Rest of the World

        —      15    15
         
  
  
          7,243    43,871    51,114
         
  
  

 

Provision and allowance for loan losses

 

A provision for loan losses is taken as a charge to income and added to the allowance for loan losses to bring the allowance to a level considered sufficient, having regard to both specific and general factors. Any subsequent charge off (write-off) is charged against the allowance.

 

A specific provision is made against problem loans when, in the judgement of management, the estimated repayment realizable from the obligor, including the value of any security available, is likely to fall short of the amount of principal and interest outstanding on the obligor’s loan or overdraft account. Certain consumer portfolios are provided for on a delinquency basis. These portfolios are Credit Cards, Leasing and Home Mortgages. The amount of the specific provision made in AIB Group’s consolidated financial statements is intended to cover the difference between the balance outstanding on problem loans and estimated recoveries.

 

69


When a loan has been subjected to a specific provision and the prospects for recovery do not improve, a point will come when it may be concluded that there is no realistic prospect of recovery. When that point is reached, the amount of the loan which is considered to be beyond prospect of recovery is charged off.

 

The management process for the identification of loans requiring provision is underpinned by independent tiers of review. Credit quality and loan loss provisioning are independently monitored by head office personnel on a regular basis. A groupwide system for grading advances according to agreed credit criteria exists with an important objective being the timely identification of vulnerable loans so that remedial action can be taken at the earliest opportunity. Grading is fundamental to the determination of provisioning in AIB Group; it triggers the process which results in the creation of a specific provision on individual loans where there is doubt on recoverability.

 

General provisions are also maintained to cover loans which are impaired at balance sheet date and, while not specifically identified, are known from experience to be present in any portfolio of loans.

 

General provisions are maintained at levels that are deemed appropriate by management having considered: credit grading profiles and grading movements; historic loan loss rates; changes in credit management, procedures, processes and policies; levels of credit management skills; local and international economic climates; portfolio sector profiles/industry conditions; current estimates of expected loss in the portfolio.

 

Estimates of expected loss are driven by the following key factors;

 

  Probability of default i.e. the likelihood of a customer defaulting on its obligations over the next 12 months,

 

  Loss given default i.e. the fraction of the exposure amount that will be lost in the event of default, and

 

  Exposure at default i.e. exposure is calculated by adding the expected drawn balance plus a percentage of the unused limits.

 

Our grading systems have been internally developed and are continually being enhanced, e.g. externally benchmarked, to help underpin the aforementioned factors which determine the estimates of expected loss. Estimated expected loss is only one element in assessing the adequacy of our allowances.

 

All AIB divisions assess and approve their provisions and provision adequacy on a quarterly basis. These provisions are in turn reviewed and approved by the AIB Group Credit Committee on a quarterly basis with ultimate Group levels being approved by the Group Audit Committee and the Group Board of Directors.

 

70


Movements in the allowance for loan losses

 

     December 31,

 
     2003

    2002

    2001

    2000

    1999

 
     (Euro in millions)  

Total allowance at beginning of period

   862     1,009     872     771     538  

Acquisition of subsidiary companies

   —       —       —       35     184  

Allowance of disposed loans

   (135 )   (2 )   —       —       —    

Transfer from provisions for contingent liabilities

   —       —       —       —       —    

Currency translation and other adjustments

   (51 )   (86 )   46     33     43  

Recoveries of provisions previously charged off

   18     26     25     32     28  

Amounts charged off

                              

Ireland

   (65 )   (62 )   (34 )   (33 )   (31 )

United Kingdom

   (25 )   (21 )   (10 )   (17 )   (16 )

United States of America

   (23 )   (89 )   (42 )   (44 )   (43 )

Poland

   (69 )   (106 )   (24 )   (18 )   (6 )

Rest of the World

   —       (1 )   (3 )   (20 )   (11 )
    

 

 

 

 

     (182 )   (279 )   (113 )   (132 )   (107 )

Provisions charged against income (1)

                              

Ireland

   109     72     137     80     80  

United Kingdom

   62     43     36     40     31  

United States of America

   10     97     49     44     38  

Poland

   134     167     122     91     22  

Rest of the World

   —       —       2     3     7  
    

 

 

 

 

     315     379     346     258     178  

Recoveries of provisions against income (1)

                              

Ireland

   (32 )   (21 )   (18 )   (14 )   (15 )

United Kingdom

   (11 )   (11 )   (16 )   (11 )   (21 )

United States of America

   —       —       —       (1 )   —    

Poland

   (102 )   (126 )   (106 )   (64 )   (15 )

Rest of the world

   —       (1 )   (2 )   (3 )   (14 )
    

 

 

 

 

     (145 )   (159 )   (142 )   (93 )   (65 )

Recoveries of provisions previously charged off (1)

                              

Ireland

   (13 )   (12 )   (13 )   (15 )   (14 )

United Kingdom

   (2 )   (2 )   (1 )   (6 )   (4 )

United States of America

   (3 )   (12 )   (11 )   (10 )   (9 )

Poland

   —       —       —       (1 )   (1 )

Rest of the World

   —       —       —       —       —    
    

 

 

 

 

     (18 )   (26 )   (25 )   (32 )   (28 )
    

 

 

 

 

Total allowance at end of period

   664     862     1,009     872     771  
    

 

 

 

 

Allowance at end of period

                              

Specific

   348     435     539     436     401  

General

   316     427     470     436     370  
    

 

 

 

 

Total

   664     862     1,009     872     771  
    

 

 

 

 

Amounts include:

                              

Loans and advances to banks

   2     2     2     3     3  

Loans and advances to customers

   662     860     1,007     869     768  
    

 

 

 

 

     664     862     1,009     872     771  
    

 

 

 

 


(1) The aggregate of these sets of figures represents the total provisions for loan losses charged to income.

 

Commentary on the movements are detailed on page 28 i.e (provisions for loan losses), page 72 (net charge offs) and page 77 (movements in non-performing loans).

 

71


The following table reconciles the total provisions for loan losses charged to income as shown in (A), the table on page 71 above relating to “Movements in the allowance for loan losses”, with that shown in (B), AIB Group’s “Consolidated statement of income”.

 

     Years ended
December 31,


 
     2003

    2002

    2001

 
     (Euro in millions)  

(A)

                  

Provisions charged against income

   315     379     346  

Recoveries of provisions charged against income

   (145 )   (159 )   (142 )

Recoveries of loans previously charged off

   (18 )   (26 )   (25 )
    

 

 

Total charged to income

   152     194     179  
    

 

 

(B)

                  

Provisions for loans losses

   152     194     179  
    

 

 

 

The following table presents additional information with respect to the provision and allowance for loan losses for the years ended December 31, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000 and 1999.

 

     Years ended December 31,

 
     2003

    2002

    2001

    2000

    1999

 

Allowance at end of period as a percentage of total loans, less unearned income, at end of period

                              

Specific Allowance

   0.68 %   0.80 %   1.04 %   0.94 %   1.01 %

General Allowance

   0.62 %   0.79 %   0.90 %   0.94 %   0.93 %
    

 

 

 

 

     1.30 %   1.59 %   1.94 %   1.88 %   1.94 %
    

 

 

 

 

 

The reduction in allowance from 1.59% to 1.30% is mainly due to the increase in total loans in the period of 15.5% (19.4% on a constant currency basis).

 

Specific allowances are allocated to individual non-performing loans (see page 74 for geographic split by sector).

 

The specific allowances as a percentage of loans has decreased from 0.80% to 0.68% for 2003 but when adjusted for the divestment of Allfirst the comparable figure for 2002 is 0.91%. The underlying decrease of 0.23% is largely impacted by advances growth on a constant currency basis of 19.4% in 2003 and a net reduction in NPL levels and hence specific provisions.

 

The general allowance as a percentage of loans has decreased from 0.79% (adjusted for the divestment of Allfirst 0.69%) to 0.62% mainly influenced by advances growth.

 

Other factors which have influenced the level of general allowance as a percentage of loans are:

 

  an increase in Residential Mortgages as a percentage of the total portfolio from 19.5% to 25.7%, i.e. a product sector with a lower level of risk replacing higher risk sectors.

 

  a lower level of General Provision required in our GB & NI division based on provision experience and asset quality.

 

  some continued uncertainty in the environments in which our divisions operate and the potential loss associated with the USA aircraft lease portfolio (portfolio size €54 million).

 

  some improvement in the value of loans classified as Watch grade in Poland.

 

     Years ended December 31,

 
     2003

    2002

    2001

    2000

    1999

 

Provisions charged to income and net loans charged off as a percentage of average loans

                              

Total provisions charged to income

   0.31 %   0.37 %   0.36 %   0.30 %   0.24 %
    

 

 

 

 

Net loans charged off

   0.33 %   0.48 %   0.18 %   0.23 %   0.22 %
    

 

 

 

 

 

Net loans charged-off 2003

 

Group net loans charged-off at 0.33% of average advances (€164 million) for the year to December 2003 compares with 0.48% or €253 million for 2002. The decrease of €89 million is influenced by a number of factors including the following:

 

Ireland – increased by €2 million since December 2002 and includes the charge-off of corporate credits in the energy sector of €11 million (which were provided for in 2002).

 

United Kingdom – increased by €5 million with increases in Capital Markets division partially offset by decreases in Retail operations in GB and NI. The increase in Capital Markets relates to the charge-off of a corporate credit in the services sector of € 18 million (provided for in 2003).

 

USA – decreased by €57 million due to the divesting of Allfirst.

 

Poland – decreased by €38 million reflecting a higher level of charge-offs in 2002 associated with changes in the charge-off process.

 

72


Net loans charged-off 2002

 

Group net loans charged-off at 0.48% of average advances or €253 million for the year to December 2002 compares with 0.18% or €88 million for the year to December 2001. The increase of €165 million is influenced by a number of factors including the following:

 

Ireland – increased by €29 million since December 2001 impacted